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The Ukraine War May Be Decided at the Ballot Box

Eugene Chausovsky

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2023 was, by many measures, a disappointing year for Ukraine. Russia’s war rages on, and the highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces did not produce the kind of territorial gains that leaders in Kyiv and the West had hoped. Diplomatic agreements such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative have fallen apart. And the West’s support has shown signs of stress as the war has grinded on for nearly two years without major progress toward decisive victory.

However, the war is still far from a lost cause for Ukraine and its Western backers. It was always unrealistic to expect a conclusive outcome for the conflict last year. As I argued in Foreign Policy at the end of 2022, the “survival of Putinism, and the resistance of the Ukrainian people and state, means 2023 may see neither exhaustion nor victory.”

What, then, is the outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024? Like last year, the trajectory of the war will depend on three primary factors spanning the security, political, and economic spheres, each with its own key indicators shaping the war’s outlook.

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